Defying Gravity

only tangentially relevant, but will please dave christie

In the second of this three part series on the legion of darkness, I would like to focus on the Giuliani candidacy, and specifically its ability to defy conventional wisdom and remain in many ways the frontrunner for the Republican nomination. Although Rudy’s image as America’s mayor granted him tremendous initial buzz, it was assumed that for at least three reasons he would have fizzled out long ago. The first set of concerns stems from social issues. Ever since a plurality of voters declared that “moral issues” determined their vote in the 2004 election, and that a supermajority of that vote went to George Bush the tendency to label the other side as dominated by theocratic fanatics has gone into overdrive. Because many on both sides of the aisle believe that the religious right holds disproportionate sway over the Republican party, it is understood that no socially liberal member of the GOP will ever get the presidential nod. As a thrice married supporter of gay marriage and abortion rights, Rudy Giuliani thus seems like the sort of man who the fundamentalist contingent of the Republican party would reject on face.

The second problem facing America’s mayor has been one of organization. To date, Giuliani’s actual campaign machinery has appeared disjointed and amateurish. From stupid mistakes ( allowing a private campaign strategy manifesto to be leaked to the press) to gross oversight (not hiring a New Hampshire coordinator until 2 weeks ago) Giuliani’s campaign has been ignoring the vital mechanics of a presidential campaign while rivals McCain and Romney have built up experienced and well connected staffs nationwide. A recent example of this tendency came when Giuliani half announced his candidacy in a speech that left the mayor himself confused.

But the final factor that ought to have thrown Giuliani off of the lead is the tendency of the GOP to rally early around an anointed frontrunner. As John McCain has the mantle of the Republican establishment and is seen as having paid his dues, 2008 is agreed almost by consensus to be “his year”. Because of this, Republicans have nominated their anointed even when they are far less electable than McCain appears to be (see Bob Dole)

Yet despite these potentially fatal flaws, Giuliani is, for the moment, defying electoral gravity. Polls show him maintaining a sizeable lead over John McCain (to say nothing of Romney), and anecdotal evidence suggests that he has been able to connect with the religious right in ways that the other two main GOP candidates have yet to do. That Giuliani is still on top speaks volumes about what the race of 2008 will bring to the GOP and the nation.


doubtless excited about his GOP support

Rudy’s lead first and foremost is evidence of the huge importance national security will play in 2008. Protecting America has become priority number one for the GOP primary electorate, and in this regard Giuliani is unassailable. While it is often assumed that the reviled “moral issues” voters only turn out to prevent gay marriage or stem cell research, Giuliani may have found a way to turn national security into a powerful and emotive platform with which to reach the conservative wing of his party. Indeed, many have described his speeches about the attacks of 9/11 as leaving almost spiritual impact, and he has used this to great effect in even the most conservative GOP precincts.

The second implication of the Giuliani lead is that in this primary season, conservatives may well have no Mr. Right. Many social and cultural conservatives still feel burned from John McCain’s 2000 attacks (the Arizona senator referred to the religous right as "agents of intolerance") and view Romney with great suspicion and trepidation (see previous post). Thus, if ever there was a year for voters to accept an excellent candidate despite disagreeing with a few of his stances, this would be the one. As a result, Rudy is benefiting greatly from the paucity of more conservative alternatives. In this regard, he owes a debt of gratitude to George Allen for self destructing during the senate campaign and to Bill Frist for self destructing during the Terri Schiavo debacle.

More importantly, though Giuliani’s lead shows us that the conservative base knows what pollsters have assumed for years; Giuliani is the best national candidate the GOP could possibly field. Polls show the former NYC mayor beating all comers, and with a favorability of 64.2 he beats Obama (58.8) and decimates Clinton (49) (this according to a Wuinnipac poll conducted earlier this year). Looking to the electoral map, it is easy to believe Giuliani could carry everything Bush held in 04 while forcing New Jersey into the competitive column and forcing the Democrats to spend money in New York. Indeed, state by state polls conducted by survey USA show Giuliani winning in an electoral landslide by 351 to 187. As a mayor with a history of pragmatic problem solving in one of the bluest municipalities in these United States, Giuliani is the last word in cross party appeal. Rudy’s lead, then, has a simple explanation; the GOP wants very, very badly to win in 2008.

Note: This post written in my capacity as blogger of the Princeton College Democrats